With Election Day less than 48 hours away, on Sunday researchers at Public Policy Polling issued the results of a new survey suggesting both constitutional amendments on Minnesota's ballot this year could fail.
PPP's poll estimated support for the first amendment, which would write an existing ban same-sex marriage into the state constitution, falling to 45 percent from 49 percent in the Star-Tribune's recent Minnesota Poll. Support for the second amendment, which would require voters show a state-issued photo ID when they vote, was pegged at 46 percent, with 51 percent opposed. That's a significant drop in support since recent polls estimating the amendment would pass with 53 percent of the vote.
The most recent KSTP/Survey USA poll, released Sunday, put support and opposition for the amendment at statistically even.
Neither marriage amendment supporters at Minnesota for Marriage nor amendment opponents at Minnesotans United for All Families could be reached for comment as of publication time. However, in an unsigned fundraising email sent Sunday night, Minnesotans United told supporters that they "cannot get complacent."
"This is great news—but polls have shown our side winning in other states and we’ve lost every single time," the plea read. "Now is the time to double-down and leave nothing to chance."
In past comments to the media, marriage amendment supporters have claimed public opinion polls undercount their supporters. In an inerview last week with Buzzfeed.com political reporters, the National Organization for Marriage's Brian Brown was upbeat about his side's chances for success. Along with Minnesota's Catholic bishops, NOM is helping bankroll the campaign to pass the marriage amendment.
Both campaigns have shifted into get-out-the-vote mode as Nov. 6 approaches, with each side trying to turn the other's flank with high voter turnout.
PPP surveyed 1,164 likely voters on Nov. 2 and 3 through automated telephone interviews. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.9%. 40 percent of poll respondants self-identified as Democrats, 32 percent self-identified as Republicans, and 27 percent called themselves "independent." 29 percent of respondants described themselves as "moderate," and 39 percent described themselves as "somewhat conservative" or "very conservative"
The poll's crosstabs, questions and other data are available on PPP's website.
Marriage Amendment Polling in Minnesota
|Poll||Date||Support||Oppose||Undecided||Number Surveyed||Margin of Error|
|Public Policy Polling||1/21/12||48%||44%||8%||1,236||+/- 2.8%|
|Public Policy Polling||6/3/12||43%||49%||8%||937||+/- 3.1%|
|Star-Tribune||9/17 to 9/19, 2012||49%||47%||4%||800||
|Star-Tribune||10/23 to 10/25, 2012||48%||47%||5%||800||
|KSTP/SurveyUSA||11/1 to 11/3, 2012||47%||48%||5%||615||+/- 4.2%|
|PPP||11/2 to 11/3, 2012||45%||52%||3%||1,164||+/- 2.9%|